Financial Implications of MBTA Zoning

Lexington Appropriation Committee's Memo 2/14/2025

 The Appropriation Committee has issued MBTA Zoning Impact Memorandum. 

Conclusion of the report:

"The large area of 253 acres and allowance of very high unit densities are the fundamental aspects of Section 7.5 that are driving the current wave of multifamily development projects.

In the near term, the rate of development for multifamily housing does not appear likely to abate. This development is likely to result in far more dwelling units in Lexington than were initially predicted by the Planning Board, with a commensurate increase in the population. The implications of massive development will be far reaching and will touch many aspects of life in Lexington.

In this memo the Committee has explored both the potential new revenues and expenses associated with Section 7.5 developments that are likely to or may proceed in the foreseeable future. We find that the assessment method used for apartment developments yields much lower property tax revenues on a perunit basis compared to single-family homes and condominiums. We have made quantitative estimates of potential increases in Lexington Public School enrollments and corresponding increases in education expenses that may be needed to maintain educational quality. This analysis, based on some simplifying assumptions, suggests that the increase of expenses for the schools will exceed new tax revenues by an amount in the range of $4 million to $12 million for every 1,000 new dwelling units built in the overlay districts. There is a reasonable probability that several thousand new dwelling units will be built in the next decade, and therefore that the Town will confront substantial funding gaps that must be reconciled during budget development.

We have noted that there may be additional increases in operating and capital expenses to provide new school, road, or water/sewer infrastructure as well as increases in the costs of providing police, fire, and other municipal services. These expense increases are not easily estimated, especially since many of them will not be proportional to population increases but rather to become necessary only at discrete points in population growth.

Finally, some of the Section 7.5 developments may result in the replacement of commercial properties with residential properties, and there will be a loss of both the current commercial tax revenue and potentially much higher future revenue, especially at properties in the Hartwell Ave. CM zone where the zoning bylaw was relatively recent amended to permit more intensive commercial development.

It is imperative that the members of this Committee and other Lexington officials continue to make efforts to understand the possible range of consequences of such development, and that they develop plans to mitigate undesirable consequences."

Resident Tad Dickenson's fiscal impact analysis 3/2023

 Mr. Dickenson researched and shared with the Town Meeting members about misconceptions and the financial impact of the proposed Article 34 MBTA zoning in March 2023 in his report. Cost for schools will be"$27.7-78.7 million per year." (page 6)